Gus Edwards' flashy fantasy football showings make it time to sell

Publish date: 2024-05-04

“Indiana Jones and the Fantasy Crusade,” a classic film that lives only in the head of a Madman. Yet, this past week beckons us to revisit this timeless bit of mental cinema.

At the climax of “Fantasy Crusade,” we see our hero and his foils trying to pick among a collection of holy fantasy grails. Some are bright and shiny, with flashes of name recognition of touchdown frequency.

Other fantasy cups are duller, less eye-catching, giving off just the subtle sparkle of efficiency or volume.

Yet brighter and shinier isn’t always better, and for everlasting fantasy life, sometimes you want the thing that is less flashy.

Gus Edwards has been a bright, shiny object in the Ravens’ backfield the past few weeks. He followed a 21.4 PPR game in Week 7 (14-for-64 rushing with a touchdown, 1-for-80 receiving) with a blockbuster 19-for-80 and three-TD performance on the ground in Week 8, and a whopping 29.4 in PPR. Sunday, he had a solid fantasy day again — just 5-for-52 rushing but with two touchdowns, good for 17.2 in PPR.

Six TDs in three games. That is a bright flash of shiny numbers — an average of 22.7 per week in that span, a rate topped only by Christian McCaffrey and De’Von Achane for the season.

Yet … the bright and shiny options don’t always deliver everlasting fantasy life. For an omen of this prophecy, just look at this past week’s workload split among Baltimore RBs.

Edwards got just five carries, in a game when the script broke heavily in favor of the Ravens’ run game. Instead, it was Keaton Mitchell and Justice Hill who got larger shares of the work.

Gus Edwards #35 of the Baltimore Ravens is tackled by Jarran Reed #90 of the Seattle Seahawks during the first half  on Sunday. Getty Images

Hill led the way with 13 carries for 40 yards, but that was good for just 4.0 in PPR. And though he had the most carries among Ravens RBs, the workload split was still just 50 percent his way, because nine other carries went to the rookie Mitchell. And Mitchell showed some sparkle — 9-for-138 and a TD on the ground.

Let’s take a moment to talk about the difference between “flash” and “sparkle.” A flash comes and goes quickly, shines brightly momentarily then erodes to just a shadow of its former glory. A sparkle remains sparkly for as long as it receives some light.

Edwards is showing flash right now. He already has seven TDs, but he has topped that number just one time in his career (13 in 2020). Could he have a late-stage Jerome Bettis-type of season — where he scores TDs in bunches even on low volume? Maybe. But that type of production isn’t reliable, it is a flash in the pan. Instead of trying to capture that flash, sell Edwards now while his value his high.

Betting on the NFL?

Then run out and grab Mitchell. He could turn into Store Brand Achane — with his dynamic speed and burst similar, but not equal, to the Miami rookie. Because if choosing a path between TD rates and pure talent, our crusade more often lead us to talent.

Mad about you

Saquon Barkley RB, Giants

Some fantasy managers might be panicking, with Daniel Jones now out for the season and Barkley already mired in a meh season. But volume is volume, and talent is talent. Try to trade for him on the cheap.

Devin Singletary RB, Texans

Dameon Pierce has an ankle that kept him out last week and likely longer. He didn’t pay off in Week 9, but with a full-volume workload, Singletary is a nice option during bye-week hell.

Devin Singletary USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con

Donovan Peoples-Jones WR, Lions

A largely forgettable season with the Browns, and many might have forgotten he was traded to the Lions before a Week 9 bye. Nice bench option on a strong offense.

Cole Kmet, TE, Bears

With 16 catches, 134 yards and two scores in past two weeks, he is tracking as one of the best second-half TE options, as long as Tyson Bagent remains at QB.

Mad scramble

Alvin Kamara RB, Saints

As long as the Saints keep feeding Taysom Hill, Kamara is going to lose TD opportunities. What makes even less sense is just 13 touches Sunday. If you can deal him at full price, do it.

De’Von Achane RB, Dolphins

Enhance your calm. This isn’t about Achane’s talent, it is about math. He is averaging one TD every 6.7 touches — RB average is 32.9. Achane might be extra special, but not 550 percent better than average. Sell him to someone willing to pay a top-tier price.

Jordan Addison AP

Jordan Addison WR, Vikings

Possibility Justin Jefferson might not immediately return from IR and Joshua Dobbs’ electric Vikings debut will inflate market value for Addison. Try to ship him now while price is at its peak.

Noah Brown WR, Texans

Brown likely will remain Houston’s third WR option — behind Nico Collins and Tank Dell. Don’t spend big FAAB dollars or waiver priority to acquire him.

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